Originally Posted by
wphamilton
Maybe it's this needs to be stated: The probability is not a quality owned by the element. It is dependent on the selection, and applies to individual elements of the selection.
Which is another way of what I said (a few times).
Originally Posted by
njkayaker
Yes, but the risk analysis is for a population (for an imaginary "individual" that represents the population).
Originally Posted by
wphamilton
The 14% probability applies to every person satisfying the selection criteria.
The selection criteria is over-broad (
often) or mismatched.
That's why the "no one uses helmets in the Netherlands, so no one anywhere else shouldn't either" argument isn't convincing.