Especially for someone with some outdoor experience in like backpacking or canoe camping I don't see any reason that go big or go home should be a big problem. I along with two other touring newbies did the Trans America as our first bike tour. We were all pretty familiar with self supported travel and all of our equipment though. We went with just a few weeks between deciding to go and hopping on a plane for the west coast. All went very well. It sounds like you plan some shakedown trips so you should have things well sorted out ahead of time.

As far as learning from the forums... My advice is to be careful not to get too caught up in a lot of what folks talk about wanting/needing gear wise. Reading on the forums you might get the idea that certain gear items and brands are a necessity, when in fact they are far from it. It is very possible to tour without needing a lot of upgrades to your bike or a lot of very expensive gear items.

Also it is possible to carry very little and be comfortable and happy on tour. Some may want to carry a little more and some a lot more, but don't start with the assumption that you need to. How much gear it takes to be comfy will vary with the rider, but I know that I have found that it is possible to get by with a very small amount of relatively inexpensive gear.

I recommend not doing a lot of detailed planning of route and schedule. An open ended flexible schedule is a joy and a rigid schedule can be a joy killer. The same applies to budgets. It is always nice to have more time and money than you will need.

Also don't assume that you need more stuff for a long tour than a short one. I have found that I take almost exactly the same items regardless of trip length.