Yesterday's forecast called for 100% chance of thunderstorms, wind gusts up to 20 mph, and flash flood warning - all in the late afternoon/evening. I witnessed none of these things on my evening ride to the brewpub for our monthly happy hour.
I got some sprinkle on the ride home after the happy hour but that's about it. One of the fellow local cyclists at the happy hour pointed out that summer rain is fine, but I should look for gear for colder rain conditions. He said if I could protect my extremities I'd be fine.