Originally Posted by
mconlonx
The whole premise of Peak Oil is that it would get people out of cars and onto bikes, into mass transportation. Even if Peak Oil were occurring, or when it does, we've already seen the future: hybrid and full-electric cars. Peak Oil =/= the end of car culture.
You're forgetting about the intermediating mechanism that leads from 'peak oil' to transportation reforms, which is rising fuel prices. Up to now, oil prices have been falling due to a broad supply-side stimulus campaign designed to force down global oil prices by means of more domestic drilling, more energy source diversification, increasing renewables, etc. etc.
Domestic drilling threw in the towel when oil prices dropped to current levels. Presumably ethanol is still being added to gasoline, but I'm not sure at what point that becomes unprofitable. Todays headlines suggest Saudi oil is going to start raising prices due to weakening Chinese demand. The question is how high the price has to go before offline US drillers get back into the market. We may see a shift toward longer term conservation, which would mean rising fuel prices driving more investment in alternatives and renewables.
Every round of reform results in some lessons learned and future efforts will be informed by those. I doubt we'll have to cringe through another attempt to use corn ethanol, shale oil, etc. to lower gas prices with the knowledge that simple political choices can bring the price down again. The problem is that the broad public simply won't accept rising fuel prices so that puts political pressure on to push producers into selling for less, even when they don't want to. Military force may regain popularity as a means for controlling gas prices but the public may be also be wising up to the need to accept higher prices and mitigate these with conservation.