I commute in the city, all road in the AM, some path in the PM, road bike with pannier. 55 YO pack a day smoker but ride avg 3K miles a year. In city traffic with all the starts and stops a good rolling avg is 12-13 mph a 14+ mph day I was absolutely rocking it. Today was 21 miles, 1:32 moving time for 13.74 mph top speed of 25.5. My average "rolling pace" I would guess in the 14-16 range. That said, I usually budget 10 mph for "real time" to get places. Wind makes a difference, how many clothes, spring start up is slower avg, cold weather riding is slower too.