I lost faith in long range weather forecasting. It's almost like trying to predict future events by looking in a crystal ball. Mother nature is full of last minute surprises. The last big ice storm we had, hit us unexpectedly and most people failed to be prepared for it. I just take it few days at a time, I check my daily forecast and make sure I am prepared for whatever is supposed to happen on that day. During winter commuting I always carry some extra clothing and extra gloves just in case.