1) I think not on the merits based on current technology, though on style, sure why not:

- I would guess a fair number of those who don't today, fall into the group who have discs on their MTBs. That probably doesn't rule out the curmudgeon effect but it shows the broader reasons in play;

- At whatever a wheel, it is above the usual tourist price point of 15 dollars a cantis;

- Until they do something about wheels other than just trying to cram more crap into the same space, I think there is a traditional touring bias in favour of solid wheels, disc wheels are pretty crap. There are easy fixes but the industry doesn't buiild touring bikes, it builds hand me downs, so we will see.

2) The current disc technology is crap. In the future, there are many possible revolutions coming down the pike, like commonplace hydro disc brifters, or electronics, better wheels, like all carbon no braking surfaces, and so forth. These could be huge game changers, but they cost money and tourists are cheap. But the new question would be if everything changed for the better where the disc technology was without compromise and entirely better, would tourists change if they won the new gear for free. Yeah, probably.

3) Are there any residual ways in which rim based disc systems (like cantis) could survive the coming changes. If the new stuff weakens wheels; is hard to work on in the sticks; is poorly modulated; and too expensive, sure the old stuff could survive.

I read up on some old Cunningham interviews, and he makes a pretty good case against discs, and he was probably talking about hydro discs, not the crap we have.