Originally Posted by
Brian Ratliff
Well... The human imagination and intuition is our greatest strengths as human beings.
Well, opposable thumbs ... and reasoning ability. Yes, the ability to create abstract thoughts, the ability to imagine, can be useful, but like any tool if used inappropriately it can be damaging or dangerous.
Originally Posted by
Brian Ratliff
You aren't going to convince me my intuition is wrong without positive evidence.
This, I would say, is imagination being misused. For instance, I can say that my intuition tells me that a dragon will eat me if I ride a Chinese carbon bike. You say, “It has never happened.”
That is evidence. The thing never happening is data. But it doesn’t meet your expectation or support your intuition so you reject it.
“There is a monster under my bed!” Even if you look and don’t see it, you still believe it ... then you grow up.
What, pray tell, would be “positive” evidence that these frames don’t break, other than the observable fact that no one here can cite a legitimate instance of it happening? What would it take to make you see that your imagination is wholly unsupported by fact?
You say there is a lot of info about Chinese carbon frames failing. I have not seen any, but if you say you have, I will take your word for it,. Please provide five or seven links. Please don’t ask me to prove your case. If you have done the research you claim, show the results.
Originally Posted by
Brian Ratliff
See, I don't like statistical methods. it's a problem I have, particularly as an engineer. Statistics are a black box.
This also is ridiculous. There is no “black box.” The mathematics are right there. There is no mystery.
Obviously statistics do not predict in every case. Sometimes I might just flip heads 100 times in a row. But the reason people use statistics is to evaluate data rationally. If after 1000 frames are sold and ridden for 1000 miles each, no one reports frame failure, then statistically you have no reason to worry. If 100,000 frames are sold and a few people reports discoloration, a few visible cracking but no structural failure, a few creaking .... statistics helps you create context to determine risk. No guarantee, but no “black box.” All the methodology is right out there, if anyone cares to look.
If data is being manipulated, then that is dishonest science, but it is the fault of the statistician not the discipline of statistics,.
But here we are not employing statistics, we are directly analyzing evidence--as in, No Reports of Failure. Where is the “black box?” Where is the “manipulated data”?
If you come up with half a dozen cases of the frames failing under normal use, that would be great. I would have to change my opinion based on this new evidence (assuming the evidence seems valid—but I am not predisposed to discount it. I want the Facts, because I am considering spending Real Money and risking my Real Life on one of these Chinese carbon frames.)
All I know is the stories I have seen so far have been about things breaking into a cloud of shards for no reason, or under the slightest load, and none of them seemed convincing. maybe you found better examples? please share.
Originally Posted by
Brian Ratliff
For the supporters, they pat themselves on the back for saving $1500, and if something goes wrong, there is a strong incentive to quietly go out and buy a new frame.
Dude, this is entirely fabricated. You just made this up. it is not Evidence, it is fiction.
Give me the names of three people you know who did this.
Yeah, I thought so.
Look, this is not an argument to be won or lost. I don’t care who likes Chinese carbon frames, or who buys them. But just making stuff up to try to “win” a discussion ... is an option. I tend not to choose it.
Please ... if you still have links to reports of Chinese carbon frame failure—and well-known brands, not Chinarrello, or random stuff bought off Ebay—please share them. I am open to more factual information.