I really don't want to argue math with an engineer ... so I will argue language..

Seriosuly, "statistics" doesn't "imply a model." One (or many) application (s) of statistics does (do) indeed. But here there is no model. You simply count the number of reports, see how many report danger and how many of those seem credible.

The "black box" here would be the human brain, using "intuition" (which you have championed as our best ability) to determine which reports are fabricated, exaggerated, or accurate.

In any case ... I would not suggest to anyone that he or she buy one of those frames. I would say that I might.

On the other hand, I have repeatedly suggested that people buy old bikes off Craigslist or Ebay, where there is absolutely no information about how the bikes were used or maintained, or whether they are safe or safety hazards.

Anyway ... it is cold and raining and I don't feel like riding in the rain today so I might search online for more frame complaints ... but probably I will search for more bike parts to upgrade my existing rides.

Be well, sir.