No. Do you have such a calculation? There is no way of accurately predicting how long a bike will last on the road in real life use as far as I know, and that "scientific" study posted above as "evidence" that people shouldn't worry about the durability of Al and C/F, starts off by making that statement. The longevity I predicted for my "modern" Al framed bike is a pure guess based on my usage and estimated time remaining in my riding career. In other words, I expect it will last for as long as I can ride it, considering my declining strength, and endurance, and reduced speeds, and my preference for riding in fair weather only, etc and so on.
There are two undeniable facts about my bike I can't dismiss and which I was fully aware of when I bough it: 1) Al has a service life of X amount of cycles, then it will break, regardless of how careful I am with it; 2) Carbon fibre can be fragile, as the above video demonstrates. Unfortunately, I had to buy a bike that came with a carbon fork. When I bought it, I was *warned* about mounting it on roof racks, as in be very careful because the c/f fork doesn't like to be exposed to certain forces. So, I have a bike that is, in the back of my mind, fragile, (c/f fork) and will break over time regardless of how I treat it, (Al frame) though that time may be and I hope will be a good, long time. Maybe during my ownership tenure I should replace my carbon forks every 5 years out of “prudence” so I don't end up like the rider in the above video? (imagine if that happened on a fast descent!)
These concerns/issues never crossed my mind when I was on Italian steel. Now, I will spend hours visually inspecting my frame and fork on a regular basis, looking for cracks. Over 12-15 years of predicted ownership, that will come to what? 400 hours of frame/fork inspection time? If, out of prudence I do replace my carbon forks every 5 years, that will come to what? Another 500.00?
Believe me, I have nothing against Al or c/f and as mentioned I like my Al bike very much, and admire and understand the appeal behind c/f bikes...but...if I could have purchased an Italian built steel bicycle for the same or a little more than what a good Al bike like mine costs, or what an "entry level" c/f costs, then make no mistake, that would be my ride of choice. Unfortunately, new Italian steel frames have become "art".
At present, there's a "vintage" market for steel bikes where sellers are asking as much or more for the bikes as when they were new,...mostly for Italian frames from what I can tell. I see no such market now or in the future for Al or c/f bikes. They are "disposable", not collectible IMO. If that's true, and I'm thinking it is as Al has been around for 20 years and I don't see 20 year old Al bikes being sold for what the original purchase price was, then it's for a reason, linked to durability/service life IMO. YMMV.
