It might be time to shift that standard public health message: To lose weight, simply exercise more.
"We would say that 'If you want to lose weight, you probably ought to focus on changing your diet and watching how much you eat.'
This much is certainly true.
The average person cannot burn up enough calories at the typical low intensity level they choose to burn off any significant amount of excess weight. And then they "reward" themselves for exercising with a snack that get you back to no deficit for the day.
The EXERCISE MORE to lose weight campaign is largely driven by the food industry that does NOT want you to eat less or spend less on food.