Down to 35 degrees: Sportful Bodyfit long sleeve winter jersey (~$100) + LG Course vest (~$95): race-fit, surprisingly warm and comfortable
20-35 degrees: polypro base + LG Boreal jacket (on sale right now for $90) - also race fit, this is the newer (2015+) version of this jacket, it's terrific for the money.
Below 20 degrees: polypro base + Gore Fusion Tool jacket ($200 but worth every penny). I'm mainly fatbiking at this temperature. I can go down to about -5 with this jacket and two base layers, it's very warm. Below that I'm likely not riding.
Cold rain: Gore Path jacket ($200, often on sale): a tiny bit roomier cut for baselayers but still not flappy. Great for commuting. I use it for running in the rain as well.

Overall, Gore jackets are the best, in my experience. Extremely well made, well designed and very durable. Gore jackets are expensive at full retail but they're often on sale and they last for years.

I've found that non-cycling specific jackets don't really work that well. The arms are too short for reaching forward and the backs ride up. They can work in a pinch but if you ride a lot, a good jacket is invaluable.