My theory boils down to simply this: if the light doesn't get noticed before the cyclist, then the light is not adding to safety. My basic assumption is that once a driver knows that you are there, they will not intentionally hit you. If they notice a cyclist before they notice the light, then the light didn't really help any and the safety level would be the same without it.

Behavior is more important than lighting during the daytime and is important even at night. But the combination of behavior and extreme lighting is even better.

In ideal situations such bright lighting is not necessary. However, my company recently announced a move to a new location. At this location, there is no shoulder, no bike lane, no nothing, 2 lanes, high speed, heavy commuter traffic and most drivers are looking at phones. Three cyclists have been killed within 2 miles of the new location in the last few years. I decided to heavily step up my lighting game. If even the Designshine doesn't do it, I'm ready to buy actual police lighting packs and mount them elevated above my rear rack.

However, since the announcement, the township has built a greenway alongside the road, so it may actually not be too bad, except that I don't know if they're going to keep the greenway plowed in the winter, and a chunk of it is wooden boardwalk and I'm not sure if it will be slippery when wet.

If you can't make the assumption that a driver that sees you will not intentionally hit you, then there's nothing you can do apart from stay off the street.