I order manufacturing overseas and deal with shipping logistics. Andr0id did a great job summarizing things. However:

- Order could be delayed on Surly's end with the appropriate product manager late placing an order.
- Factory could be backed up and unable to meet Surly requested manufacture finish date.
- Delays happen at manufacturing plants outside of ordering company's control.
- Manufacturer could be holding product for pre-payment.
- Could be that shipping savings would be realized with ganging Steamroller frame shipment with other frames and is held until other frames are finished.
- Freight could also be held for further consolidation at Port of departure.
- Ocean freight is usually quick and reliable nowadays, but one never knows...
- Could be delayed on entry due to customs or other Port of arrival shenanigans
- could be delayed by re-shipment and receipt at Surly (QBP) warehouse.

So when the order is placed, an arrival date is projected, but may be only the best guess, especially since this is probably busy season for bike manufacturers. Once shipped, there should be shipping docs and tracking info along the way, but ETAs are just that, estimates, not guarantees.

And through personal experience with QBP and other wholesalers, if a product is on order/not in stock and I need or want it sooner, I will seek out same or similar product elsewhere. It pays to be flexible...