In 30+ years of locking up bikes outside in the big city and countless times of leaving bikes and gear outside and unsecured while touring, the only place I have had a bike stolen was from inside my house, while I was home, awake.
The only time someone attempted to steal anything from me while I was touring was the time I left my Dragonfly stove out near my tent, which was pitched in a campground in DuBois, WY. The tenting area was near a road that led to a residential area. Nothing but a post rail fence separating my stove from the road. Kid jumped out of a car while his buddy waited, climbed over the fence and headed for my site. Fortunately, I was what was going on as I was reading outside the laundry room. Made a bee line for my site. Kids fled empty handed.