Yeah, the water resistance has to be just right or you get cold, just like you say. I do the suck test: put the fabric to my mouth and try to suck air through it. You should get a little air but not really easily. My favorite shell is the Voler Jet in Hi-Viz. That shell and I have been through some very long wet rides together. The main thing is to have enough really breathable insulation under it so you stay warm even when wet. You need just enough water penetration to cool you. I've tried wearing a softshell under the wind jacket, but it gets absolutely saturated and weighs 10 lbs. Some sort of open weave poly works well.