Beautiful morning, and cold (-12C/10F).
As I was heading out the door, I grabbed my favorite wool blend hoodie, and I'm glad I did. In temps 20F and above, I'm fine with a wicking base layer, my wool zip-up jersey, with a high-viz wicking shirt over top (and a few layers on my legs).
With the hoodie and: safety glasses, earband, hat, and Buff neck gaiter, 2 pair light gloves, Columbia Bugaboot, wool socks, bike shorts, lycra leggings, and wind-blocking tights--I was toasty the whole ride!