Originally Posted by
jon c.
I'd take that bet. 10 years would, IMO, be exceedingly optimistic. Even if the technology was perfected already, it would take longer than that to replace the fleet of existing human driver cars. A decade ago, I thought the majority of new cars would be electric by now. Progress is slow and radical progress is likely to be much slower.
Use your imagination and apply this article to the problem of effecting a rapid change-over to self driving vehicles:
Why the Cars In Japan Look Just Like New - NYTimes.com