Maelochs

personal transport is still important ... but even more than that is the fact that a bike is not only personal a bike (except for a tandem) is Purely personal.

Try taking out a date on a bike. An Uber, a cab, a rental, a train, even ... but show up on a tandem and good luck.

Once people are done dating and are pumping out puppies ... well, I guess you can put them in the catapult char on the rear fender ... after all, you can always make another if one breaks.

If you have two or three kids, and the kids have knapsacks and bags of sports gear .... or if you and the spouse want to visit another couple ... pay for the babysitter's Uber and rent a car?

Add to that, a lot of the country is unhealthy for any kind of casual cycling for at least a few months out of each year.

It is a lot more than "car=freedom." Urban sprawl, climate, terrain, fitness, family obligations .... and cost.

My very old father had a paid-off car. He could operate that car for a fairly low cost per mile because he didn't abuse it, and only had to pay for fuel and insurance and the most basic maintenance. He is simply too old and unfit to be cycling. And sadly ... too old to be driving. After a pair of accidents, he has had to surrender on driving ... he won't say it, but he knows he is unsafe.

And he finds that Ubers and cabs are a lot more expensive than his paid-off car. He lives in a retirement home a long way from any suburban center and he finds the costs of hiring cars prohibitive on his fixed income.

All this stuff ... make me think in terms of cycling, particuipation will remain about levle for a lot more than five years.

One thing i notice: the one place where cycling could, with a little infrastructure help, make a big advance, is in dense urban areas. if "bike-exclusive" lanes protected by walls were added, cycling would be a lot more practical. even people in office wear could do slowish, shortish rides to lunch or from the train to the office--at least in spring and fall.

Thing is ... Money. Money would need to be spent by the body politic for the Perceived benefit of only a very limited few (1.2 percent?) Roads would end up being a little narrower .... and roads would be almost constantly blocked with the added construction and maintenance (much caused by drivers crashing thought the walls ... some, trying to squeeze into the bike lanes.)

Yes, speeds would drop, and bicycler messengers would hate it. Most riders wouldn't Want to go that fast, because they would be wearing nice clothes, have expensive haircuts, and so forth.

Drivers would have the option to like it but probably wouldn't.

That is One place i see some gains being Possible.

One thing LCF people seem to forget---a lot of people simply do not Want to ride a bike. I mean,. people could jog to work, too. But a lot of people are not interested in the exercise do not want to bun the energy, do not want to show up to work either sweaty and dirty , or rain-soaked, or freezing .... even if there are lockers and showers ... a lot pf people don't want to get up, shower dress, ride, undress, shower, and dress again. and in most places, (In my decades of experience) everybody complains at least for a while while you try to explain that you need to wash up and cool down, or warm up, or whatever.

Maybe cycling to work is more accepted now, but from what i read ... not a lot.

So, add to the sweat, the soreness, the need to face the weather, the risk, the social opprobrium, the hassle of bring changes of clothes, weather gear, meals, maybe books, notebooks, and laptops .... and the idea fo getting out of work on a Friday evening (or whenever) and facing a bike ride home is the craziest rush-hour traffic, and then ... if you want to go out Friday night ...

LCF is not an easy option. it takes sacrifices and it takes discipline and it takes either a bunch of DUIs or a very strong will to live that way. And most people simply do not want to.

Imagine if I tried to make line-dancing and bowling mandatory.

I don't expect there to be a huge upturn in the number of peple who Want to embrace a car-free lifestyle, and those who do, most of them i would expect would still not want to depend on a bike. (Think of how the Vespa blossomed in post-war Italy.)

In fact ... if we really want more people on bikes .. we need to be promoting electric-assist bikes. I don't want one, but a few of the biggest obstacles to transport-cycling could be lessened or eliminated with a little battery power.