5, 2.5
I did some side-by-sides in the garage last fall. My Planet Bike SuperSpot has a hot spot in the middle which is about as bright as a 10W MR11 halogen. But the superspot only has that brightness in a little 2-foot-across spot; the halogen holds it for a nice wide beam. So I think total light output must be about half, possibly even less than that.
The HID number is a guess. My 13W HID is considerably brighter than my 20W halogen, so I just divided by two.
LEDs are efficient, that's for sure, but IMHO a 1-watt is only good for secondary or emergency lighting. I'd like to see the new 3 and 5 watt units in person, but I'm sure as heck not shelling out for them after my experience with 1 watt units.