Apologies for the long post but I've been thinking about this a lot lately and even thinking of investing in my idea and would appreciate feedback.
Let me begin by saying, I like LBSs and have been around them all my life. I bought my early bikes from them, then I learnt to build bikes with their help, then I was a steady consumer. Hecked I even "volunteered" in one recently (see
Anyone ever volunteered at their LBS?).
It was this last stint where I clearly saw the writing on the wall, especially as the employees and owner would often talk about the situation openly. Amazingly this was/is a very popular shop (I won't name them as the volunteering bit will get them in trouble) in a very pro-bike area. So they are in the best possible circumstances and even they know the end is near.
Sales Side
1. As a 1st year "wrench" I could see the two parts to the business service and sales were not evenly match. The sale guy (and the owner) really didn't have much to do all day. Online sales by places like Amazon/BD/Nashbar etc took away a lot of the low level sales and even some high end sales.
2. But those low level bikes (think a $500 Claris equipped road bike) are pretty damn good and don't need much maintenance or even to be upgraded. We'd get a lot of people buying those and asking us to set it up and then we'd never see them again. Claris is only 8 speed, but it works well for a long time.
3. Youtube and professional channels like GMC and Arts Cycle mean even the most mechanically challenged person can put together and tune a bike if they
have enough time.
So its a perfect storm of: i) Trickle down effect giving high quality inexpensive components, ii) direct to customer sales and iii) Ample accessible information.
Now with high end manufacturers like Cannon the high end bike market is being eroded. But realistically most LBS would be lucky to sell 2-5 $2000+ bikes a week on average, not enough to even cover the rent. Pre-summer we'd sell 10+ a week, but there were many weeks in the dead of winter where we wouldn't even sell 1.
But there is hope!
Service Side
There was of course one-of-work (move my components from bike x to frameset y) but that's rare. Due to better quality components most people now do *not* bring in their bike for a spring tune let alone a fall one (as I did years ago).
But surprisingly there were people who would want almost weekly work done! We had one customer who would ride hills one week, flats another and religiously he would bring in his very expensive Boyd rear wheel on Friday night and we'd change the cassette for him for Saturday pickup.
There were loads of people like this who wanted us to regularly change tires based on weather, stems, rings, wheel sets etc.
I think its the flip side of cheap online retail. People now have many spare parts to bikes but not the time to change them over. So what these people want is quick turn over which most LBS don't do. The cassette on Friday night guy above was an exception (he'd bring the wrenches a good case of beer every month). Like most shops we'd take in a bike and promise to return it a week later.
So I seriously think the future of most LBSs is to reinvent themselves as a jiffy lube style place. Do routine services in a wait/shop-while-your-served setting and they'll make money. This will require a major rethink of how business is done. i hate to say it, but McDonalizing service is the key. Get one guy specializing in changing tires, another adjusting brakes, another adjusting RD/FD and that's all they do each day and they will do it well and quickly. Most importantly, forecasting would be more accurate. Every week we'd get customers who were promised bikes and due to know fault of him (or us) it would get delayed. It would take some serious groveling from the owner not to loose them.