my long held opinion/belief is that there will be no significant increase in cycling for commuting/utility until is more convenient to ride than drive.
What defines "more convenient"? A number of things potentially, but it will be unique for each individual, some but not all include:
Cost which is many things
- Cost of gas....history has shown it would take a big increase in gas cost to make a difference
- cost of parking, if parking at places of work were not free (as is the case in many but not all places) this would drive decisions (but would take political changes to make so)
- Increased income, if people were to paid to commute
- reduced health insurance costs
functional convenience:
- easy, safe, protected place to park bike (require bike parking for new development, not car parking)
- Hard to find parking for cars
- biking takes less time than cars
- effort is doable (e-bikes?)
- bike supports commuting/utility needs...i.e rack, fenders, light etc
Perceived safetybike lanes and other infrastructure
- visible law enforcement
- Riding education
- road diets
Social acceptance
- biking seen as normal (holland any one) daily activit
- I know person x, if they can do it i can
- wow jim has lost 20 lbs..all he said he has done is ride his bike
most of this will take legislative change, but the one thing we can do is to impact social acceptance....ride daily, commute, do utility rides, help friends and neighbors bike have fun and smile