I've been commuting for 4 years. This time of year the weather can vary quite a bit, and it's a good time to dial in your cycling apparel. Write down what you wear and the weather conditions (Temp, wind speed and wind direction) for each commute. Then note your own condition when you arrive at work (overheated, cold hands/feet, etc.) Soon you'll have an accurate database and know exactly what layers to wear for any forecast.