Originally Posted by
livedarklions
The analogy is flawed--ebikes are superior to std bikes for certain uses, but far inferior as a "fitness machine" for an otherwise healthy person. Some bicycle commuters will make the shift, but I suspect more of the adopters of ebikes will be people who otherwise wouldn't be biking.
It's quite possible that ebike sales may overtake std bike sales without std bike sales declining noticeably. It might just be fewer people driving, riding public transit or even walking.
I think the analogy holds up reasonably well. Hydraulics in particular and discs in general, have some disadvantages: they weigh more, are not compatible with frames designed for rim brake compatibility and generally require frame and wheel redesign. There are costs and benefits with both approaches, but clearly, most new 'performance' models in all niches: road, gravel, e-bike and offload, all spec discs.
Even the lowest cost ebikes I've listed in this thread spec discs. Discs are the new industry standard.
Likewise, there are 'weaknesses' with e-bikes. They are far heavier. They are more expensive at the "low end." They introduce the possibility of electrical problems or even failure. There are penalties associated with electric bike use compared with standard bicycles. However, sales are growing whereas standard bike sales are flat and have been for a couple of decades. It's not terribly difficult to see what will happen if these present trends continue. E-bikes will supplant the standard bicycle.
I'm not convinced standard bike are superior fitness machines as you call them. Hill climbing can be punishing on the knees and this is where ebikes can alleviate any potential pain. The vast majority of e-bikes are equipped with suspension, allowing a rider to pedal farther with less discomfort/more joint protection. The weight penalty for ebikes is a non-factor because of the motor and battery, whereas most enthusiast standard bicycle riders want to save weight and improve efficiency meaning suspension adoption for road use is limited.
I have no definitive prediction obviously, but I could see e-bikes supplanting standard bikes as the new standard. I won't say it's inevitable, but it is possible With Tesla and GM jumping on board, this could be a huge shift.