Originally Posted by Gibsonsean

I'm somewhere between group 3 and group 2.

I believe i will get, within a few weeks to months, a well designed, engineered and manufactured titanium folding bike with a rare attention to detail for the all-in sum of $1,600 plus shipping and applicable local taxes. He has said this will be so and I believe him because of the evidence on the backer portal of progress made and because my assessment of Peter based on the information available and behaviour observed is that his is a man of principle and integrity.

Wrt the bike, I hope it is a great ride, practical to use as a folder and does not have any fundamental flaws/safety issues or longevity issues, but only time will tell whether those hopes are realised.

I have no idea how much the bike costs to produce at what volumes, what the final retail pricing will be, what the distribution model will be etc. etc but I've previously posted my thoughts and speculations on this. Jipe's observations on the representativeness of 'cheap' ti frames from China very well articulate my own views. None of the comparators seem particularly valid or accurate and they do not take into account automation of frame welding.

I have read that Peter has run his own small scale manufacturing business / machine shop and done web dev on the side. He has had at least one previous attempt at bringing a bike design to market with manufacturing out of Taiwan and this did not work out for reasons unknown. I also have read (posts from Peter and David Hon) that he rejected an offer from Dahon to license and manufacture his original design.

I have observed that he has produced an awsome and truely innovative bike design, raised >$2m to bring it to market, persevered through a long process of establishing what looks to me to be a very impressive manufacturing capability for a much improved and matured version of that design, iterated through many prototypes.

I assume he has learned a great deal through that process including about how much it will cost to produce the bike and he has had several opportunities to revise market expections on retail pricing since the KS campaign. The pre-order pricing was certainly higher than the KS pricing. The most recently declared retail pricing is higher again at $2,200. I believe that Peter is not stupid or duplicitous. I cannot see how it serves him to deliberately low-ball the final retail price and he has had enough information to make a good fist of pricing. He has said things which are reassuring about his awareness of the need for and approach to fiscal responsibility and despite having overrun by 3+ years, does not seem to have run out of money.

I have also observed that Peter prioritises perfection over timeliness, appears to be wildly optimistic in his estimating and is not so great at stakeholder management. I worry that some of the characteristics that make him a great inventor, designer and engineer will handicap him as a businessman and that he does not have all the skills/characteristics he needs to fulfil that role. I worry that the awsome design and manufacturing capability will not be enough to make a success of the business, that whatever business case he has will not pan out and that he may not have considered all the aspects of running a business vs making a product. I worry that he may not be able to find or work with the right people to round out the capabilities his business needs.

However, he has got this far doing things his way despite many challenges and setbacks (some self inflicted). I choose to believe in him. I believe he more than deserves my support and it costs me nothing.