Originally Posted by
guadzilla
Timely thread - am looking to get a superbike for myself to commemorate a key life event later this year, and was thinking of eTap 11 vs 12. I didnt realize AXS was such a proprietary system: and yes, that is a deal breaker for me.
Congrats on whatever success you may be celebrating. Reward yourself with ETap Red--- 11 speed. no need to punish your self for achieving.
Originally Posted by
guadzilla
I wonder - assuming Shimano and Campy do go the 12 gear route down the road, will that increase compatibility across brands?
Campy already does it----differently. Shimano will do it (likely has most of it designed already) ... and I am not counting on any crossover compatibility.
Shimano would have to redo its entire line of crank sets---would have to set up whole new production lines just for the DI3-12 (or whatever they call it.) For SRAM, smaller volume, and since this is their Big Gamble flagship product .... their Bugatti Veyron or Lambo Murcielago .... they are going all-out and charging all-out prices.
Not sure Shimano would invest in such a limited market with a product which didn't work with their other stuff--and was second to the table. After all, if you want the lightest, sexiest group set you go Red. Dura-Ace is maybe more practical but if the few grams matter ... or you want to show off ....even if it is only image .... you go Red.
Shimano could instead offer the kinds of cassettes we have been discussing above---11-32 with a lot of single jumps, or 11-36 spaced like 11-28. There are a Lot more bikes out there with Shimano running gear, and a lot of it isn't top of the line. To capture the upgrade market, Shimano would have to offer 12-speed which worked with pretty much everything---Sora and up, at least. I think Shimano would get a Lot of sales from people willing to buy "upgrade" group sets---brifters, rear derailleur, cassette, chain---if there was any way the 12-speed cassette fit on 9-10-11 freehubs.
One benefit there for Shimano is that people would have to choose. And anyone looking to upgrade, would probably stay with Shimano because they wouldn't need to change everything all at once. (I'd bet an 11-speed derailleur would handle 12-speed well enough. After all, the derailleur just moves whatever amount the cable is pulled.) Also, the less Shimano had to redesign and retool, the cheaper it could offer its 12-speed systems to manufacturers---and once somebody got a mid-range bike ( a Tiagra- or 105-equipped bike) with Shimano 12-speed they'd likely stick with Shimano and upgrade, rather than buy a whole new drive train.
Shimano could in effect squeeze SRAM into almost exclusively the exclusivity market---the Big Bling bike market, and shut them out of most of the rest by being ubiquitous---all the affordable 12-speed stuff would be Shimano.