Originally Posted by
Darth Lefty
At the start of a product cycle a manufacturer has to decide to jump a certain way (do we do super boost? do we want to accommodate 170 droppers?) and they don't always wind up jumping the same direction as the market. Then they're stuck for a year or two with the wrong product. Giant and Pivot both fall here... Giant put all their money on 27.5 a while back. This is not my supposition, it has been covered in the industry press.
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/prod...r#.XTJHccIUlD8
https://www.bicycleretailer.com/node/28554#.XTJJpMIUlD8
I think you (and many others, you are not alone) are reading more into the data in those articles than is warranted...
Yes, 29 is gaining market share at 27.5's expense, and it is pretty clear it will be in the majority soon (if not already).. However, it is still (according to that article) roughly 50/50. It is a bit soon to decide based on this info whether we are seeing the beginning of the end (like with 26") or simply a correction to the over-enthusiasm (like Fat Bikes and Plus-Size). An important thing to keep in mind about 26's fate is that it was ultimately 27.5 that put the nail in that coffin.
Also, I find the reporting somewhat contradictory and sensationalist. They quote one bike shop that says it is selling basically all 29ers and no 27.5. Well, based on the fact that the industry-wide figures are showing roughly 50/50 sales, this shop is not very representative of the industry. For every shop selling nothing but 29ers, there must be some shop selling all 27.5 (or a number of them selling slightly more 27.5 then 29).
The 5010 and Mojo 3 are both specialty "playful" bikes that are getting long in the tooth and overlap in travel with some other bikes in their lineups that get refreshed sooner. In the case of Salsa I honestly don't know what they were thinking.
I like 27.5... I liked 26. But they're going to get harder to buy now.
I don't know about the Mojo 3, but the 5010 (and Bronson) both got refreshed for 2019. Clearly SC still thinks they will sell. I think it is hard to call them "long in the tooth". And yes, the 5010 is known as a "playful" bike. That is probably the biggest reason why people choose 27.5 over 29.
In the post you responded to I was simply pointing out that while many are saying that 27.5 is getting rare, when you look around at what companies are actually offering right now, that claim is not being backed up by reality... at least not yet. You/we/they can make predictions about where this will end up, but they are just our guesses. The data is not backing any scenario in particular.
Yes, non-plus 27.5 hardtails are indeed rare... but hard-tails had mostly gone 29er even before 27.5 exploded. That was never going to be 27.5's strong suite.
EDIT: Sorry, I misread the data. It was reporting consumer's INTENTIONS not what they actually bought. But it still makes my point. I am trying to find the actual sales numbers.