Went to LBS today and got some shoes and pedals. Went with SPD. From everything I could gather, the small delta in performance isn't something I should worry about right now. If I get to the point where that becomes important, I'm probably also at the point where investing more money makes sense. I'm not worried about the ridicule of using SPD pedals on a road bike when I end up buying one down the road.
Went with the simple M520 pedal and the 2019 Shimano XC7 which was on sale at my LBS. Stiffer than the cheap road shoes I was looking at, no 3 bolt, but again, if that's where I end up I'll slap the 520s back on my hybrid and just have a pair of shoes for each bike.
Thanks for everyone's help regarding pedals.
P.S. already fell, so I got that out of my system (until the next time!).