"Fact is, everything bicycle on eBay right now is overrated. Driven by speculators and the astronomical purchases of a few very lofty Japanese collectors, the prices for a lot stuff are becoming way more than the market will sustain, I think. That is just the way things go, I think, and it'll be good in the long run, because the inflation will lead a few more people to restore and actually ride vintage bicycles (btw, my 1973 Paramount was moderately hotrodded by the original owner, and the weight is around 21 lb. Just about what equivalent Italian steel would weigh.)"

Methinks once the speculators truly move in, the prices will become truly warped. You'll start seeing printed price guides, probably based on ebay sales, and giving info about spotting the good stuff. I'm still able to find nice bikes relatively cheaply.That's because the auctions I attend, while full of ebay sellers and speculators, are attended by no one who knows the first thing about bikes. So they leave them alone, or bid on the bling, leaving me with a rustbucket paramount or whatever... once the price guides move in, these guys will start picking up on what I've been doing. Right now they treat me like a mildly retarted relation. I think if the speculators really move in, prices will move up.

To some extent, I think we're seeing some of this already. Some pedestrian older bikes (UO8s and other low end Pugs) are ebaying for more than they were a year ago, and though I haven't bought much in the last six months (edit: on ebuy. I by plenty locally), it seems like some of the higher end vintage stuff has gone upwards too.

Also, once you get a more formal guide, the folks will start to think they have something special and be less likely to part with it unless they score some cash in return.

I've had a couple of P-monts in my hands the last couple years, later waterford models, and had they been a bit bigger, I might have kept 'em. Very nice bikes.