Currently the limiting factors for my fold is the front tyre (good, that's a soft buffer)...


IMG_20200619_112648767 by gunnsteinlye, on Flickr

...but also the "shoulder" of the shimano chain tensioner hitting the front hub/spokes:


IMG_20200619_112725124 by gunnsteinlye, on Flickr

If the tensioner "shoulder" was less beefy it could fold closer. The Rohloff tensioner seems narrower, but also has less chain uptake, so might give a slack chain when folding.

Assuming no tensioner, the next limiting factors are the fork hitting the rear mudguard stay, and the front pannier distance bar hitting the rear wheel spokes. Perhaps also the QR nut hitting the cassette, if you have one. With no mudguard and no front carrier, the fork would hit the upper part of the rear dropout, unless stopped by the tyre/frame touch point.


IMG_20200619_112915235 by gunnsteinlye, on Flickr


IMG_20200619_113049811 by gunnsteinlye, on Flickr

Top view of the fold:


IMG_20200619_113237200 by gunnsteinlye, on Flickr