msu2001la

Yes, a bit.

I don't think gravel is killing the cyclocross market completely, but I do think we will see entry level/alloy CX bikes disappear, and carbon CX bikes will become more and more race-specific, and less "do-it-all / race on sunday, commute on monday". Take Cannondale for example. A few years ago they offered the CAADX with a variety of drivetrains including SRAM Apex and Rival 1x11 setups and a Shimano 105 2x11. I think they used to even offer an Ultegra CAADX. Currently they only have one build:

• GRX400 2x10 speed with hydro discs for $1850.

For comparison, they currently have 3 builds of the Alloy Topstone:

• GRX800 2x11 speed with hydro discs for $2150
• Sora 2x9 speed with mechanical discs for $1500
• Microshift 1x10 speed with mechanical discs for $1250

It's not hard to imagine Cannondale killing off the CAADX entirely and just offering similar build on the Topstone for $1850. The alloy Topstone is still an excellent bike for entry-level CX racing, and is better suited for the "all around super commuter do it all" market. The only reason to choose a CAADX over it is if you really like that specific geometry, or are looking for a cheap bike to race CX with (and even then the 2x10 drivetrain isn't ideal for CX racing).

The comparison continues between the carbon frame offerings. Over the last 2-3 years they sold the SuperX with 1x11 Rival, mechanical Force, Force AXS eTap, plus they had a GRX version. They currently have 3 builds of this bike:

• Basic race version with GRX800 1x11, SI crank for $3150
• Gravel version with GRX800 2x11, HG crank, carbon seatpost and 40c tires for $4300
• Ultimate race version with Force AXS eTap, carbon wheels, carbon seatpost/bars for $7050

Meanwhile they've got 5 builds of the Carbon Topstone:

• 105 2x11 for $2750
• GRX800 2x11 for $3200
• GRX800 2x11 with carbon wheels, HG crank, etc for $4600
• GRX800 2x11 with lefty suspension fork for $4250
• Force/Eagle AXS with lefty fork, carbon wheels, HG crank, etc for $8500

I have no idea who's buying that $4300 SuperX with 2x drivetrain and 40mm tires, when you can get the same drivetrain in a Topstone for $3200, or spend $300 more and get the $4600 version with carbon wheels, HG crank, carbon seatpost, etc. Maybe there are CX racers who still really want 2x and maybe there are gravel riders who really just prefer the CX geometry, but it will not surprise me at all if in the next few years Cannondale is only selling two versions of the SuperX, a basic and an ultimate build, and the Topstone swallows the rest up.