Well, the good news is it fits 28s. The sort of tragic news is it's bent. It's not too obvious from the picture, but this is the last time I'm eyeballing a frame/fork since clearly my eyeballs are no good. I'm a bit heartbroken since I like the fit.
The paint near the headtube isn't rippled or cracked but it's definitely bent a little bit. I think I can still ride it but just not hard, which is easy since I don't ride hard.
I figure if I can ride it at a few hundred kms I can at least get enough fun out of it.