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Old 09-30-21 | 07:05 PM
  #10  
mev
bicycle tourist
15 Anniversary
 
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 2,626
Likes: 464
From: Austin, Texas, USA

Bikes: Trek 520, Lightfoot Ranger, Trek 4500

Originally Posted by pdlamb
Your "one in a million chance" doesn't seem to jive with the seven reports of broken bikes that've cropped up already.
What is the denominator for this "one in a million" claim? Is it:
- one in a million people
- one in a million bikes
- one in a million miles
or something else in a million? Assume numerator is frame breaks.

As far as my breaks go, I'm not sure I would explicitly change things:
- Both happened during an extended trip. On the Australia trip, I ended up traveling 28,500 kilometers in a year expedition. On the Americas trip, I ended up traveling 27,000 kilometers in an 18-month expedition.
- Both happened after quite a bit of cycling and this wasn't the only cycling I had done with those bikes [so perhaps supporting the aluminum fatigue description mentioned by Tourist in MSN]
- On an extended expedition it cost me some time to resolve. Approximately 15 days in the Australia break and a week in the Argentina break.
- One of the fixes ended up being a weld. In both cases I wasn't looking in a way outback situation. Instead, I got myself to a larger point of civilization.
- Still only two failures in 20 years and I did quite a bit of other touring other than these two trips.
- I am a large guy, so expect both my weight and my gear probably helped in putting more stress on the system

If it is one in a million centimeters, then I'm doing better than the odds...
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