I have no clue what the probability of frame or fork failure is. But I would be much more concerned about probability of failure if I was in the middle of nowhere. But some of my tours have been where long distance bus options exist, or other means of getting out if you have to abort a trip.
Here, I want a rock solid bike and drive train that I can depend on. Aborting a trip here would be complicated. I think the nearest bike shop was about 200 km. Nearest retail of any kind was about 100 km away.
Here, I would not be as concerned about having to abort a trip due to serious mechanical failure. Lots of choices available.
