Originally Posted by
Ghazmh
It’s a shame how the manufacturers are hurting their dealers with the consumer direct model. Sometimes it’s a convenient option but how convenient is it when the buyer needs a wheel trued or can’t figure out a creaky bottom bracket from a worn chain.
This will still be handled.
trek/giant/specialized will take over all the retail space they want. Independent dealers of theirs will either cease to exist or simply exist in territories that the big guys don't see as being profitable but they still want a presence in. Option 2 is full independents - shops that carry lines too small to throw their weight around or support consumers directly - think smaller bike brands. There will be this level of independent shop that is big money and carries a lot of these small lines. They will be a large draw for a large geographic area. Think of how many times you've been like, "Gee I am interested in a ____. Is there someone near me that carries ____? Oh look this shop is listed as a dealer. I know they carry ___ and ___ as well. I know it's a drive but maybe it's worth it so I can at least test ride or put hands on the ____ I am thinking of getting".
Option 3 is service only shops. Mine has been one for 8 years (I do sell Van Dessel technically but they are custom to order and not stocked). We handle everyone's problems and just fix what comes to us. Brands like Cannondale/Cervelo/PON will start to rely on "us" to handle their needs just like how Canyon does.
We get the shaft as a service shop though because our wholesale pricing on components is literally what you guys used to pay for at retail. We have to build our model around that by simply just charging what we are actually worth for the service time. A lot of us just tell people to buy their own parts and bring them in. If it's wrong then you pay me to get the right ones. Don't know what to get then I can get it for a fee or I can sit down with you and tell you what to buy but you're paying me for my time.
So possibly we see component prices coming down. i would guess 20-40% f the shops remaining will disappear in the next few years. I am not alone in that estimate. Any small to mid sized shop that is one of the big brands will be forced out through shortages and competition from that brand in the same market. Many will convert to service only to stay alive. As such while the component prices might come down again your labor prices will absolutely hold to increase. The industry is really beyond caring how much anyone thinks something should cost. We are now at the point where we want to be paid for our labor - just like every other business.
...and none of us are losing sleep over home mechanics doing their own work or helping buddies. If anything they slightly lighten our overload in the busiest times. The reality is that the vast majority of the population has no desire to do their own work and that will never change. In the words of PCad (RIP), "I have people for that".