Originally Posted by
RandolphCarter
The two biggest factors are starting quality of the bike and how much it has been neglected.
A bottom end bike will tend to be garbage after 25 years even if it wasn't neglected. A nicer bike will require severe neglect to reach the same level of un-rideability.
This is an important distinction. The bike I rode in last year's edition had been sitting out in the elements, not even locked, on a bike rack for ten years. It was nothing special to begin with but not bad -- a mid-level Takara -- but after I cleaned it up it was a pretty decent bike, definitely not garbage.