Where is that Zen story that suggests you don't need to carry ****? Even the bicycle is superfluous. No matter your material preparation, life will throw something unexpected your way. With the right attitude, you can deal with anything. I like it.
I'm 90% there. I carry the stuff to cover what I think is most likely to happen, and count on my resilience as a human being to take care of the rest.
On the tubeless bikes: plugs, tube, patch kit, dollar bill, sealant, pump.
On the tubed bikes, subtract plugs and sealant.
Unless I'm just riding around town, in which case I might ride naked*. It's very liberating.
Suppose all your **** goes bad. I've seen these things occur on rides: All flat repair used up. BB spindle breaks (me), crankarm comes loose (me), frame breaks, front wheel tacos, seatpost breaks, rear derailleur goes into spokes, handlebar breaks, cell phone charger fails, pedal threads come loose from carbon crankarm, tire rips along bead, axle breaks, bike stolen, bike lost by sleep deprived rider, wallet lost on multi-day ride.
What are you going to do? Walk may or may not be an option.
I think, ultimately, it comes down to asking for help from a stranger. If you're not willing to either ask for help or die, you should probably stay home. You can't carry enough stuff to be self reliant 100% of the time.
*I mean without repair stuff. But actually, participating in one of the world naked bike rides is itself a very liberating experience. Go ahead, make yourself vulnerable.
Last edited by downtube42; 10-18-22 at 09:00 PM.