If you track calories in and track your weight and adjust calorie intake accordingly then you are more likely to hit your weight target. Knowing your calorie intake with reasonable accuracy is one less guess in the equation. It’s no different to tracking your weight as the output variable. The only reason people don’t count calories is because it takes a little more effort (although modern tech makes that fairly easy). As a bonus, calorie counting also gives you valuable information about your macro and micro nutrient mix.