Originally Posted by arbee

I've been on the sidelines of touring-by-bicycle for a few years, even longer for 'self-supported' touring.

With that disclaimer, here's a suggestion that's worked for me since ... forever.

Do a few real-world trial runs. Simulating this is a poor substitute.

After each ride, unpack your stuff and make three piles:

#1: the stuff you actually used;

#2: the stuff you might have used ... but didn't; and

#3: the stuff you'd never use.

Next time, bring pile #1.

This includes bicycle touring in the US, Western Europe, and the British Isles (the latter is meaningfully if subtly different from Western Europe). One sometimes useful if unexpected supplement for supplies on US rides: yard sales.

About the only contradiction to my suggestion to Bring Less: if any maintenance of your bike requires other than Very Standard Tools, bring the Special Implement(s) even if you never use it/ them.