I'm a recreation rider in the mid 60's, riding London (UK) roads so mostly paved but with many potholes.
I went up to 28mm (from 24mm) tubular about 2 years back and really like them.

TdF teams do a lot of research, most of which won't be relevent to me, and they seem to be using 28mm on tarmac and some use 32mm on gravel.
https://www.cyclingweekly.com/produc...tour-de-france