Originally Posted by
lasauge
The way I see it, C&V bikes appeal to three main groups: people looking for an inexpensive but effective bike, those with an antiquarian interest, or people who feel a sense of nostalgia for older bikes. The demand for older bikes has and will continue to shrink dramatically as the nostalgia buyers age out of riding, and people looking for inexpensive bikes simply have better options these days with the rampant discounting of new bikes. The rise of e-bikes has also cut into demand for pedal bikes generally. So unless the antiquarian hobbyist group grows (I'd put myself in this category) the demand and price for C&V bikes is not going to recover.
I've heard something similar for classic cars--that they reach their peak when the people who dreamed of having them when they were younger hit their peak earning power, roughly empty nesting but before retirement. So the classic '60s cars at 60 years old have probably peaked in value already (discounting increasing rarity in the future), but iconic '80s vehicles are shooting up in price. It makes sense that something similar would happen with bicycles as well. I'm guessing that most of the people willing to pay good money for classic race bicycles maybe already did, and younger people who are looking for a vintage styled bike aren't shopping with a memory of what they dreamed of affording before, but want a good looking and functioning bike to ride.
Also, I think everyone who wanted an older bike bought one in the Covid used bike boom. Going from that time when you could actually fix and flip a bike and make profit, it is a weak market now. I did sell some bikes I had minimal money invested in recently, right after the university move-in. I work in the college town so posted them as located there and got way more interest that I would have in my own town.