Originally Posted by Trakhak

Roughly 14 million 10-speed bikes were sold in the U.S. in 1974 alone. That was a peak year, so figure maybe 8 million per year from 1975 to 1990 or so. Probably half the total never saw more than 1,000 miles or so of use, which accounts for the seemingly endless supply of nearly pristine examples showing up on Facebook Marketplace and Craigslist in a steady stream.

Yes, the supply is finite. Yes, it's always decreasing. Where we differ is in predicting how the numbers will play out in the future.

My guess is that demand will diminish faster than supply, especially now that electric bikes (and scooters and skateboards and unicycles and the other variants) have begun to upend the market.

The number of such one-rider electric vehicles I now see around me in the streets of Baltimore is staggering. And, when I see older people riding around out in horse country in northern Baltimore County, at least 1 in 10 is in full Lycra while piloting an electric bike (or, increasingly, an electric recumbent).

Those older riders likely have one or two vintage bikes at home. But, unless they're on Bike Forums and being urged on by us enablers, they're unlikely to be in the market for another.

Setting aside all the bikes and related paraphernalia I have cluttering the house, I have electric guitars and basses and amplifiers and whatnot -- some vintage and still collectible, most not. I know from reading musicians' forums that, other than the rarest examples of such equipment, most of it is worth much less that it was at its peak.

The old stuff is still beloved, for those who grew up with it or aspired to own it. But for most others, the new stuff is simply better, in most ways that count.