Originally Posted by
PeteHski
Well this is the “road bike” forum and the question was specifically about the future of road bikes. I have no doubt automatic e-bikes are/will be a thing. It makes sense in that market, especially rental e-bikes. But I don’t see automatic road bikes catching on for all the reasons I stated earlier.
I’m sure Shimano and SRAM have already experimented with auto shifting with Di2 and AXS and quickly figured out that it would be a complete waste of time. I’m sure they would have pursued it already if they thought road bike riders would buy into the idea. But they know it isn’t going to work like some people here are assuming it would ie magically putting you into the “optimum” gear at all times. Imagine you spend thousands on an automatic shifting group set and then switch it into manual paddle shift mode after you quickly get pissed off with unwanted gear shifts. Road bike riders know what gear they want to be in and they don’t always want it to be the “optimum” gear, however you define that.
Fair point - this is a road bike question. But to add an anecdote - I've heard from folks at Honda Motorcycles that their motorcycles with automatic/semi-automatic transmissions (DCT=Dual Clutch Transmission) are popular with a new generation of riders because they did not learn how to drive a manual transmission car first. Likewise, the skills required to shift a modern bicycle drivetrain may be foreign to a kid growing up with an ebike where shifting is nearly optional.
I wonder if this will impact the evolution of the road bike marketplace and push more experimentation with automatic shifting of some? Furthermore, I wonder if this will eventually lead to the demise of the derailleur? In our lifetime?