I asked Google Gemini to do a deep research on AARP membership. It gave me a report with a bunch of insights. It is difficult for me to share in entirety but let me summarize some key takeaways I got from the report...
1. AARP membership did grow rapidly in the past but since at least 2018 it has stagnated at around 38 million members. This means while the total population in their target demographic has grown, their share of that demographic has dropped.
2. AARP has a "leaky bucket" problem with membership. About 2 million members die each year. So they need to keep recruiting ~2.5 million new members each year (the difference is because members might quit AARP for reasons other than passing away). They've gotten pretty sophisticated in how they do this including different media for different age ranges, Spanish language publications, digital marketing, etc.
3. The largest financial source for AARP isn't the $16 membership. Instead almost 2/3s of their revenue comes from royalty licensing of their database to other companies. E.g. companies then sending offers or selling to AARP members. The share of revenues from royalties has been growing.
4. A key challenge recently has also been a fracturing of some members along political lines, particularly since the ACA was passed. AARP was a strong proponent of the ACA leading to some on the political right viewing the organization as too liberal. Rival organizations such as AMAC were created and compete for some of the same members.
My overall perception was that AARP has needed to continue to adapt to a changing senior market - to keep filling their leaky bucket.
Virtually every corporate entity that has an opportunity to collect customer information is monetizing that information. Which IMO does not bode well for paid clubs. Screw AARP membership dues.