Joined: Aug 2008
Posts: 13,140
Likes: 2,162
From: Ann Arbor, MI
Bikes: 15 Kinesis Racelight 4S, 76 Motebecane Gran Jubilée, 17 Dedacciai Gladiatore2, 12 Breezer Venturi, 09 Dahon Mariner, 12 Mercier Nano, 95 DeKerf Team SL, 19 Tern Rally, 21 Breezer Doppler Cafe+, 19 T-Lab X3, 91 Serotta CII, 23 3T Strada
The only reason Campagnolo are in trouble is because they don't much OE presence, and the reason they don't have OE presence is because virtually all bike production has left Europe and gone to Asia.
While this layoffs business doesn't look good, it's certainly not that Campagnolo are facing insurmountable odds to survival. They have options, I think:
1. They can find a way to get their products to where the bikes are made. Shimano and SRAM have a big leg up here. If not Asia production for Campy (but why not?), then maybe even robust Asia warehousing, though shipping from Europe to Asia and then shipping finished product from Asia back to EU and USA is going to add cost. We already know the luxury end of most markets is doing just fine, if flat, and projected to grow, so there's room to maneuver there.
2. Portugal has invested big, on the government level, into bike production. Portugal production has led the rankings in the EU for several years, and there is still bicycle manufacturing in Italy, Germany, Romania and Poland. One thing that has emerged in the post-COVID and Russia-Ukraine war era is an increasing EU awareness that they need to be self-sustaining. This is something that Campagnolo could take advantage of. It's something of an embarrassment, IMO, that every top model Italian bike is not spec'd with Campagnolo, but there are indications that this could change, giving Campagnolo, again, room to maneuver.
3. USA tariffs could shift the pricing maths in favor of EU production, coupled with a projected return to stability for the bike market in general, following this recent period of retail inventory corrections, foreign exchange losses, and high operating costs.
The big question is whether Campy is capitalized sufficiently to not only weather the next year or two, but to invest in developing areas they have undoubtedly neglected or misjudged. I'm not forecasting anything one way or the other-- this is definitely a bad sign for Campy-- I'm just recognizing that's there's room for more than just doom and gloom in the prognosis.