Front dérailleur is not working properly. New crankset (x2, tried a second one) and both new and old chain (kmc and Shimano Ultegra). Freshly waxed on one and used on the other.

It seems to be random, sometimes shifting up to the big ring properly, other time it just doesn't quite make it.

Alignment is *perfect*. Distance between teeth and derailleur is 1.5mm (tried 2mm as well). Aligned 1.5mm in on the tail, then made straight and perfectly in line with the teeth via the 2mm angle pushing out screw, whatever the heck the official name is. You know what I mean

Broke out the shims to measure gaps and do the rest of the alignment via the app. First setting in the app for the front deraileur is "by spec" at 0. Next is between 7 and 11. At 7 it just barely touches when the chain is under tension and 11 it definitely touchesd. Second setting is at 12, again barely touching.

With the above, it barely works. Rarely switches when I tell it to change gears.

Changing that to +2 giving me a 1.5 or so mm gap for the first setting between the outer wall of the derailleur and the chain, then absolutely maxing the other two items gets me "shifting" but its a bit random.

Also randomly get it throwing the chain off to the outside.

I am guessing the unit has worn out the bushing inside? It DOES move, but the fact it sometimes works and sometimes doesn't makes me think the bushing is getting out of round and I am getting random behavior. Is the above a symptom of that failure mode? With about 8k miles on the derailleur that is supremely disappointing. Enough to drop Shimano and switch to SRAM. (but the 1499 price for a groups with only what I need is slowing that decision down.)

Anyone have any ideas? I cant find a single shop in northern va with an r8150 in stock to try to swap it out, plus for the cost... ugh I dont want to spend another 300 dollars to "find out" that it is just going to happen again.