Reports of a bike being stolen because the crook cut the rear tire and the rear rim are exactly like reports of Martian space ships landing on the White House lawn. Everyone has "a friend, who heard from a guy, who talked to somebody who saw it with his own two eyes". Yet, I've never met anyone who has seen it done with his own two eyes.

The "experts" on bike theft are campus police departments. Why? In the USA, more good quality bikes are stolen on a large urban campus than any other single location. Unlike the city police, who are busy investigating murders, armed robberies, shootings, and stabbings, on a college campus, catching the folks who are stealing bikes is a major priority for the police.

So, campus police actually write reports, and make investigations of bike thefts. And, they learn exactly which bikes are stolen. The reasons: first, the bikes that were not locked at all, or had just a wheel locked, but not attached to a rack or pole. Second, bikes that were locked with cable locks. ALL cable locks are worthless, regardless of weight or price. Third, bikes locked with $19.99 u-locks from Wal-Mart. Fourth, bikes locked with expensive u-locks, but the lock was attached only to the front wheel.

The number of bikes stolen that used a top ranked u-lock and the Sheldon Brown method that have been stolen? To date, I have never seen a credible report of a single bike stolen using this method (and the "I heard from a friend that his cousin heard" is NOT a credible report).

But, any crook can steal a bike if the bike is attractive enough, and he has enough time to plan. If you leave a Trek Madone locked up in public at the same location day after day, sooner or later, it will be stolen.

It might take a crook a week or two to figure out a plan, gather the necessary equipment, pick a time and day...but he will get a bike that appears to be worth big bucks sooner or later. If you commute to work, and lock a bike to the same rack every day, that bike needs to look like it is worth $75. Maybe it is really worth $500, but make sure it LOOKS like it is worth $75.

Last week, Nashbar was selling the OnGuard Brute for $50, just $30 more than a worthless Wal-Mart lock. I'm amazed that people who spend $500 or $1,000 for a bike will agonize and stress over whether or not to invest that extra $30. The cost of dinner and a movie, versus losing a valuable bike.