From what we have seen, I think he will win it. Remember last year's tour? He lost the first time trial but he won the second time trial. I think he is going to do the same thing this time. He will win the time-trial and he is going to win it good. I believe that we have not really seen the last of him. It would more possibly be a really stressful Tdf since it is the 100th and many people wants to perform. Also, the many crashes could have taken a bit out of him. I believe however that he has well recovered and on his way to his 5th. What I wonder though is whether he will be in the TdF next year.