Is this guy just on form to an incredible degree or is he peaking too early? Or could this be a two-peak kind of situation for him?

I think he started to wonder himself after Paris-Nice. He decided to throttle back on his schedule, and he's taking it easy now going into the TDF. He'll do the Tour de Suisse for a warm-up, skip the Giro.

After reading Lance's War I have a whole new appreciation/perspective on two things: 1) Floyd's character and form, which both appear to be tough as nails; 2) The art/science of peaking at the right time.

With Landis it looks like these things could align quite nicely for the TdF. The other major variables however are the team supporting him and the tactics....and of course, luck. I think I read in the book (maybe?) that during the Armstrong reign Lance never flatted. ALL these things have to come together.

It'll be an interesting TdF this year. If a Disco rider can pull of the win then Bruyneel will be hailed as the greatest team manager of all time...if they don't they'll be saying it was all Lance...and of course, that he doped and this just proves it.

I think you're right about the flats. According to Hutchinson's ads in the bike magazine, Lance has never flatted in the TdF's.

this is one Tour when I definitely want to be glued to the TV

Favorite tidbit from Lance's War: when Floyd beat Lance in the lactate threshhold test that day and pi__ed Lance off ROYALLY as the team was gearing up for the TDF. Said a lot about both guys. I agree with your observations -- biggest question marks surrounding Landis aren't about his ability, guts, killer instinct, form, etc. They're about Phonak and how capable they are of riding for and helping Landis reach the podium. Basso is every bit as capable (albeit maybe not in the ITT), and CSC looks scary strong: Piil, Voigt, Dave Z, Julich, Cancellara, Stuey (if he's back). Strong, savvy, experienced, disciplined riders. TDF is gonna be really fun. Ironic, is it not, that Lance's absence, and the expected drop-off in American viewership, will occur just when the race is ready to become a RACE again, with at least two serious US contenders?

Who's the second serious US contender? Levi? He'll be in the top ten or fifteen. Horner? I personally think Horner is going to be on the podium, but then again I'm an idiot. Julich and Dave Z are riding for Basso. You're right about CSC being scary talented.

he's had an amazing spring so far and i think he's going to be going into the TDF with a huge amount of confidence because of it.

Horner on the podium? Perhaps as a stage winner. I would certainly think he'll be more focused on stage wins. Horner finished 32, an hour 7 minutes back last year.

You're right, of course. But in my defense, I did say that I'm an idiot.

His spring has been good, but seriously, the other major Giro and TDF contenders are either not at those races or admittedly just using them as training runs. He doesn't have the team for the TDF.

Hmm. Doesn't that sound familiar? Look for quotes made in early July, 1999...

Yes and the situation is comprable. No team really established with someone they have taken to a win recently. In short things up for grabs. That gives a rider without the right kind of team the best chance.

Of course, Lance/USPS in ''99 was not up against the equivalent of CSC, Disco, T-Mobile or even Liberty Seguros, as Floyd/Phonak have to deal with this year.

+1

Being peak early is a good thing, instead of trying to get into peak too late. Landis is definitely on target and watching his regimen, he's going to be someone to watch in the TDF.

Horner will be riding for Robbie McEwan on the flat stages and Cadel Evans in the mountains. I wouldn't look to him taking a stage at the TdF unless he gets free rein if one of the team leaders falters.

It was cool to see him in that lead pack at L-B-L, though.

What is the idea of peaking? Can a race in March or April really affect one in July?

Racing and training make you stronger to a point. Then you get tired and have to rest. If you stay at a high level for too long, you burn out. So the fact that he won a race in February, March, and in April too might suggest that he has fired all his cartridges already.

I think he is all set. He can back it off and rest now, then ramp back up in the month before the Tour, and come in both rested and strong. Furthermore, having 3 major wins in the bank means he will have very little pressure. I wouldn't underestimate Phonak, they have a good team, and also all the responsiblity won't be on their shoulders for the entire race as it was with the team of Armstrong. Also, no TTT helps them against the like of CSC.

In my opinion it is Basso's tour to lose. You have to count Floyd in due to his results this year. You can't really count Ulrich out due to his consitency. Vino is not a dominating time trialist, so I rule him out. The same with Levi and the other great climbers who are credible but not great time trialists. This year's course favors a strong individual time trialist. Basso is a very good one now. Guys like Mancebo and Levi who can't excell at time trials will have a tough time this year. I don't really like Disco's chances. Disco is dead, after all.

So I guess that is my podium, with Floyd taking Lance's place at the top.

Well I learned one of two things today:

Tom Danialson is either over hyped or Floyd has become one hell of climber. If he can regain this form in July I think I'll be buying Veloduo some beer!

I remember 2004 I was in Nice, glued to my hotel TV and saw lance get a wheel change. It must have been for some other mechanical? A broken spoke perhaps? I just remember it being SCARY fast as in 6 seconds or so.

Hey, 2Rodies! Ya catch all those Shiner banners lining the barriers on Brasstown Bald? Karma, brother...

Gotta get those geezers down at the brewery to pony up for one or two on the Champs Elysees!

i saw that too. the announcers said it was a flat, but they could have been mistaken. but, yeah, the wheel was changed out really fast. faster than it takes me to grab a drink from my water bottle in most cases.