I understand your concern completely. I had the same concern. You are thinking too hard. Relax.

Not every day in winter has black ice on the roads. In fact, I bet that fewer than 10% of the days have any real ice on the roads.

2" mountain bike tires will keep you on the road through most of the winter. You can go with studded tires which are good on icy days, but you won't need them for most days.

Once you actually get out there in the winter, you won't be so spooked.